澳大利亚央行降息25个基点至历史新低2.75%

2013年全球一周议息情况(5月6日-5月10日)

新华08网5月7日讯 澳大利亚央行7日将基准的隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点至2.75%的历史最低水平，以在今年资源投资放缓之际刺激其他经济领域的增长。

澳大利亚央行行长史蒂文森（Glenn Stevens）表示，信贷需求低迷以及澳元汇率仍然异常强劲是降息的主要原因。他还表示，通货膨胀前景仍然可控。

澳大利亚央行自2011年11月以来第七次下调利率，帮助澳大利亚经济摆脱全球经济低迷的影响，并在资源投资放缓的情况下推动其他经济领域的发展。澳大利亚央行上一次降息是在2012年12月，将基准利率下调至3%。

有分析认为预计，此次降息后，澳大利亚央行短期内或按兵不动，等候观察降息对经济的影响，下一次降息可能在3个月至6个月以后。

澳大利亚央行降息决定公布后，澳元兑美元快速跳水50余点，刷新2个月低点1.0181。澳大利亚股市S&P/ASX 200指数转而走高，现涨0.1%。

以下为澳大利亚央行2013年5月7日货币政策声明全文：

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, effective8 May 2013.

The global economy is likely to record growth a little below trend this year, before picking up next year. Among the major regions, the United States continues on a path of moderate expansion and China's growth is running at a more sustainable, but still robust, pace. Japan has announced significant new policy initiatives aimed at strengthening demand and ending deflation. The euro area remains in recession. Commodity prices have moderated a little in recent months though they remain high by historical standards.

Financial conditions internationally continue to be very accommodative, with risk spreads reduced, funding conditions for most financial institutions improved and borrowing costs for well-rated corporates and sovereigns exceptionally low.

Growth in Australia was close to trend in 2012 overall, but was a bit below trend in the second half of the year, and this appears to have continued into 2013. Employment has continued to grow but more slowly than the labour force, so that the rate of unemployment has increased a little, though it remains relatively low.

With the peak in the level of resources sector investment likely to occur this year, there is scope for other areas of demand to grow more strongly over the next couple of years. There has been a strengthening in consumption and a modest firming in dwelling investment, and prospects are for some increase in business investment outside the resources sector over the next year. Exports of raw materials are increasing as increased capacity comes on stream. These developments, some of which have been assisted by the reductions in interest rates that began 18 months ago, will all be helpful in sustaining growth.

Recent data on prices confirm that inflation is consistent with the target and, if anything, a little lower than expected. The CPI rose by 2½ per cent over the past year, and measures of underlying inflation gave a broadly similar outcome. These results have been pushed up a little by the impact of the carbon price. Growth of labour costs has moderated slightly over recent quarters while productivity growth appears to be improving. This should help to lessen increases in prices for non-tradables. The Bank's forecast remains that inflation over the next one to two years will be consistent with the target.

Over recent meetings, the Board has noted that interest rates have already been reduced substantially, with borrowing rates approaching previous lows, and that the effects of this on the economy are continuing to emerge. Savers have been changing their portfolios towards assets with higher expected returns, asset values have risen and some interest-sensitive areas of spending have increased.

The exchange rate, on the other hand, has been little changed at a historically high level over the past 18 months, which is unusual given the decline in export prices and interest rates during that time. Moreover, the demand for credit remains, at this point, relatively subdued.

The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook would afford scope to ease further, should that be necessary to support demand. At today's meeting the Board decided to use some of that scope. It judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate to encourage sustainable growth in the economy, consistent with achieving the inflation target.