澳央行按兵不动 年内或再降息一次(附声明)
核心提示：澳大利亚央行2日宣布维持基准的现金利率在3.00%水平不变。目前市场普遍认为澳大利亚央行将在今年年内再降息一次。
新华08网4月2日讯 澳大利亚央行2日宣布维持基准的现金利率在3.00%水平不变。分析认为，此举暗示澳央行相信之前持续一年的降息行动正促使经济活动全面复苏。
澳大利亚央行还发表声明重申，必要时仍有降息空间。通胀表现基本与目标水平相符，大宗商品价格仍处在高位。
澳大利亚央行自2011年11月以来已六次下调利率，帮助国内经济摆脱全球经济低迷的影响，并在资源投资放缓的情况下推动其他经济领域的发展。最近一次降息是在2012年12月份，基准利率目标由此降至3%，上一次达到这一低位是在全球金融危机爆发之后。
目前市场普遍认为澳大利亚央行将在今年年内再降息一次。
花旗经济学家Josh Williamson表示，澳央行似乎愿意维持现状，并可能已经完成了宽松周期。他表示，鉴于经济增长速度低于趋势水平，澳央行在5月份有再次下调利率的空间，但如果没有降息，澳央行可能已经决定降息周期结束。
摩根大通高级分析师Ben Jarman对此表示，澳大利亚央行今日的声明跟过去几个月的声明很相近；他们暂时相对感到满意，但认为如果随后有必要的话，仍有余地采取更多行动。
Ben Jarman还称，澳大利亚央行仍有放宽政策的倾向，称通胀前景状况良好，以至于如果经济成长受限，可以再次降息。Jarman表示：“我们预期会再次降息。但我们认为不会是最近，应该接近年末”。
瑞银集团利率策略师Matthew Johnson称，澳大利亚央行保持了宽松的倾向，这符合市场的预期，也能够解释报告公布后期货上涨的原因。
当日亚洲汇市，澳元走高，一方面是由于美元走软，同时也受澳大利亚央行货币政策会议提振。
而据《澳大利亚人报》报道，澳大利亚总理吉拉德将在本周访华，预计她此行的一个重要内容是与中方签署澳元与人民币直接兑换协议。
附:澳大利亚央行政策声明(中文版)
在日内的会议上，委员会决定维持现金利率在3.00%的原先水平。全球经济增速预计依然将在一段时间内略低于平均水平，不过下行风险有所降低。欧洲依然陷于衰退局面，美国经济正温和扩张。
中国经济增长稳定在朝气蓬勃的水平。整个亚洲地区的经济增速此前受到中国经济增速放慢以及欧洲经济疲弱的拖累，但近期再次出现企稳信号。商品价格开始回落，但仍相对持稳在历史高位水准。
纵观全球格局，金融环境颇具适应性。风险溢价随金融局势的改善而收窄。
包括澳洲在内，具备高投资评级国家的长期利率依然维持低位，大型企业和借贷环境同样具备吸引力。股票价格自低位显著反弹，不过几个主要经济体的私营和公共部门融资目标依然远未完成，和这些领域相关的金融市场依然较脆弱。
澳洲方面，在此次会议前获取的大部分经济指标都暗示经济增速接近2012年趋势水平，主要受资源部门资本开支的引领，而其他部门则经历着低迷期。展望未来，资源投资热潮正接近触顶，不过其他领域的需求强化的空间也将打开。
近期的统计信息显示，私人消费开支温和增长，但不太可能回到几年前的强劲增长局面。非住房投资领域和资源部门以外的投资短期前景依旧相对疲软，不过数据暗示下一财年的投资有望实现温和增长。另一方面，数据预示营建投资形势缓慢改善，营建价格走高，租房收益率提升。自然资源的出口依然强势，不过公共开支却开始收缩。
近期的通胀数据符合中期目标，最新的总体和核心数据达到2.25%的年率增幅水平。就业成本压力依然温和，企业更为关注提升就业效率，这一趋势将限制通胀维持低位，即便早先澳元升值的影响开始消退。央行评估仍认为，未来1-2年通胀仍可符合目标。
一系列经济数据暗示2011年晚些时候和2012年的降息行动促进了经济扩张，政策调整的进一步效果可能随着时间的推移而展开。另一方面，澳元汇率近期再次启动升势，汇价水平高于期望水准，出口价格以观测到滑落之势。
央行认为，有鉴于通胀有望与目标相符，以及未来的一年增长可能略低于趋势，因此宽松货币政策的立场是合宜的。当前评估的是，如果有必要以宽松政策来支撑需求的话，通胀前景仍可承受进一步放宽政策。
在日内的会议上，委员会判断维持利率不变的选择是谨慎的。委员会将持续评估经济前景，并调整政策，从而培育可持续的经济增长并维持通胀符合目标的环境。（来源：FX168）
澳大利亚央行政策声明(英文版)
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent.
Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time, but the downside risks appear to be reduced. While Europe remains in recession, the United States is experiencing a moderate expansion and growth in China has stabilised at a fairly robust pace. Around Asia generally, growth was dampened by the earlier slowing in China and the weakness in Europe, but again there are signs of stabilisation. Commodity prices have declined somewhat recently, but are still at historically high levels.
Internationally, financial conditions are very accommodative. Risk spreads are narrow and funding conditions for financial institutions have improved. Long-term interest rates faced by highly rated sovereigns, including Australia, remain at exceptionally low levels. Borrowing conditions for large corporations are similarly very attractive. Share prices are substantially above their low points. However, the task of putting private and public finances on sustainable paths in several major countries is far from complete. Accordingly, financial markets remain vulnerable to setbacks.
In Australia, growth was close to trend over 2012, led by very large increases in capital spending in the resources sector, while some other sectors experienced weaker conditions. Looking ahead, the peak in resource investment is drawing close. There will, therefore, be more scope for some other areas of demand to strengthen.
Recent information suggests that moderate growth in private consumption spending is occurring, though a return to the very strong growth of some years ago is unlikely. While the near-term outlook for investment outside the resources sector is relatively subdued, a modest increase is likely to begin over the next year. Dwelling investment is slowly increasing, with rising dwelling prices and high rental yields. Exports of natural resources are strengthening. Public spending, in contrast, is forecast to be constrained.
Inflation is consistent with the medium-term target, with both headline CPI and underlying measures at around 2¼ per cent on the latest reading. Labour costs remain contained and businesses are focusing on lifting efficiency. These trends should help to keep inflation low, even as the effects on prices of the earlier exchange rate appreciation wane. The Bank's assessment remains that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
There are a number of indications that the substantial easing of monetary policy during late 2011 and 2012 is having an expansionary effect on the economy. Further such effects can be expected to emerge over time. On the other hand, the exchange rate, which has risen recently, remains higher than might have been expected, given the observed decline in export prices. The demand for credit has also remained low thus far, as some households and firms continue to seek lower debt levels.
The Board's view is that with inflation likely to be consistent with the target, and with growth likely to be a little below trend over the coming year, an accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand. At today's meeting, the Board judged that it was prudent to leave the cash rate unchanged. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target over time.
[责任编辑：姜楠]
