澳大利亚央行维持基准利率在3%不变
新华08网2月5日讯 澳大利亚央行5日在今年的首次政策会议上维持利率不变，符合此前市场的普遍预期。澳大利亚央行表示，全球经济所面临的风险在减弱。
澳大利亚央行将基准的隔夜拆款利率目标维持在3%不变。声明称，全球经济增长面临的下行风险看来在减弱。中国经济增长已经企稳，步伐相对强劲。
澳大利亚央行在声明中称，将根据需要调整政策以支持经济增长，通胀水平允许在必要时进一步放松政策。
澳大利亚央行表示，近几个月一些大宗商品价格已经上涨，资源投资即将见顶，其他领域的需求有更大增强空间。维持利率不变是稳健的做法，本次决议将近期数据和过去的宽松政策纳入了考量，2012年放松政策的全部效果需要时间来显现。
在提到通胀时，澳大利亚央行表示，通胀可能与目标相符，通胀水平允许在必要时进一步放松政策，未来一年经济增长可能将略低于趋势。该央行认为，澳元汇率仍高于预期。
相对温和的通胀使得澳大利亚央行有条件自2011年11月以来累计将利率下调175个基点，至当前的3%。澳大利亚统计局最新数据显示，澳大利亚2012年第四季度消费者物价指数(CPI)环比上升0.2%，同比上升2.2%。
在长达十年的采矿业增长热潮降温之际，澳大利亚央行不断下调基准利率，以提振经济中受冲击最严重的领域，例如房地产和制造业等。
澳大利亚央行在2012年12月的货币政策会议上宣布降息25个基点至3%这一纪录低位，以支撑该国经济增长。2012年，澳大利亚央行累计降息125个基点，但目前3%的基准利率水平仍为发达经济体中的最高水平。
以下为澳大利亚央行货币政策声明全文:
Statement by Glenn Stevens， Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today， the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent.
Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time， but the downside risks appear to have abated， for the moment at least. The United States has so far avoided a severe fiscal contraction and financial strains in Europe have lessened considerably over recent months. Growth in China has stabilised at a fairly robust pace. Around Asia generally， growth was dampened by the earlier slowing in China and the weakness in Europe， but again there are signs recently of stabilisation. Some commodity prices have firmed over recent months.
Sentiment in financial markets has continued to improve， with risk spreads narrowing and funding conditions for financial institutions becoming more favourable. Long-term interest rates faced by highly rated sovereigns， including Australia， remain at exceptionally low levels. Borrowing conditions for large corporations are very attractive. Share prices have made further gains. However， the task of putting private and public finances on sustainable paths in several major countries is far from complete and， accordingly， financial markets remain vulnerable to setbacks in these areas.
In Australia， most indicators available for this meeting suggest that growth was close to trend in 2012， led by very large increases in capital spending in the resources sector， while some other sectors experienced weaker conditions. Looking ahead， the peak in resource investment is approaching. As it does， there will be more scope for some other areas of demand to strengthen.
Present indications are that moderate growth in private consumption spending is occurring， though a return to the very strong growth of some years ago is unlikely. The near-term outlook for non-residential building investment， and investment generally outside the resources sector， remains relatively subdued. Public spending is forecast to be constrained. On the other hand， there are indications of a prospective improvement in dwelling investment， with dwelling prices moving higher， rental yields increasing and building approvals higher than a year ago. Exports of natural resources have been strengthening， though recent bad weather is affecting some shipments.
Inflation is consistent with the medium-term target， with both headline CPI and underlying measures at around 2¼ per cent on the latest reading. Looking ahead， with the labour market softening somewhat and unemployment edging higher， conditions are working to contain pressure on labour costs. Moreover， businesses are likely to be focusing on lifting efficiency under conditions of moderate demand growth. These trends should help to keep inflation low， even as the effects on prices of the earlier exchange rate appreciation wane. The Bank's assessment remains that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
During 2012， there was a significant easing in monetary policy. Though the full impact of this will still take further time to become apparent， there are signs that the easier conditions are having some of the expected effects: the demand for some categories of consumer durables has picked up； housing prices have moved higher； there are early indications of a pick-up in dwelling construction； and savers are starting to shift portfolios towards assets offering higher expected returns. On the other hand， the exchange rate remains higher than might have been expected， given the observed decline in export prices， and the demand for credit is low， as some households and firms continue to seek lower debt levels.
The Board's view is that with inflation likely to be consistent with the target， and with growth likely to be a little below trend over the coming year， an accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The inflation outlook， as assessed at present， would afford scope to ease policy further， should that be necessary to support demand. At today's meeting， taking into account the flow of recent information and noting that there had been a substantial easing of policy as a result of previous decisions， the Board judged that it was prudent to leave the cash rate unchanged. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target over time.
[责任编辑：陈周阳]
