美联储维持850亿美元的购债规模不变

央行观察：聚焦美联储9月议息会议

北京时间周四(9月19日)02:00，美联储(Fed)公布9月利率决议声明，称维持每月850亿美元购债规模不变，令市场大跌眼镜。

声明表示，自美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月利率决议会议以来，经济活动一直以适当速度扩张，一些经济指标也显示美国就业市场最近几个月来也在持续改善，但失业率仍然高企。

家庭开支及企业固定投资有所上升，房地产市场也在走强，但抵押贷款利率也进一步上涨，且财政政策正在限制经济增长。

美国经济及就业市场下行风险已有所消减，但如果市场利率持续走高，可能影响此后经济动能；将继续每月收购450亿美元长期国债以及400亿美元抵押贷款支持证券资产。

美联储称，将在失业率在6.5%以上以及1-2年期通胀预期低于2.5%的情况下继续维持超低利率不变；将在日后基于经济前景状况，以及购债的利弊得失状况，再考虑是否调整购债力度。

美联邦公开市场委员会的声明显示，其将在此后的会议上基于就业及通胀领域的数据，再度决定是否缩减量化宽松措施力度。

决议以9票对1票的票数通过，理事乔治投下反对票，理事拉斯金则缺席本次会议。

美联储指出，通胀率持续低于2%可能对经济造成风险，但此后通胀率可能会逐步恢复到控制区间中部。

附:美联储利率声明(英文版)

Release Date: September 18， 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months， but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced， and the housing sector has been strengthening， but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices， inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective， but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate， the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that， with appropriate policy accommodation， economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished， on net， since last fall， but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months， if sustained， could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance， but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment， the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However， the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly， the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together， these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates， support mortgage markets， and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative， which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation， over time， is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities， and employ its other policy tools as appropriate， until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases， the Committee will， at its coming meetings， assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course， and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability， the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular， the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent， inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal， and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy， the Committee will also consider other information， including additional measures of labor market conditions， indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations， and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation， it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke， Chairman； William C. Dudley， Vice Chairman； James Bullard； Charles L. Evans； Jerome H. Powell； Eric S. Rosengren； Jeremy C. Stein； Daniel K. Tarullo； and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George， who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and， over time， could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.(来源:美联储网站)