澳大利亚央行维持利率在2.5%不变 符合预期

2013年全球一周议息情况(9月2日-9月6日)

澳大利亚央行周二(9月3日)宣布维持利率在纪录低点2.50%不变，符合预期。

澳大利亚央行 资料图

澳大利亚央行称，经济正向矿业投资走低的方向调整；预计近期经济增长将低于趋势水平；澳元汇率处于高位，可能进步一下跌。

澳大利亚央行表示，过去的宽松效果料持续；若有必要将调整政策，以促进经济可持续发展。

澳大利亚央行并称，通胀与目标水平一致；预计未来1-2年内通胀仍将处在目标通道内。

该行指出，澳大利亚失业率已小幅走高；劳工成本增长温和，预计近两年仍将保持；最近出现家庭对信贷的需求增加；澳大利亚金融机构资金面宽松。

该行还认为，金融市场波动对新兴市场造成打压；商品价格仍然高企。

附:澳大利亚央行利率决议声明（英文版）

Statement by Glenn Stevens， Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today， the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent.

Recent information is consistent with global growth running a bit below average this year， with reasonable prospects of a pick-up next year. Commodity prices have declined from their peaks， but generally remain at high levels by historical standards. Inflation in most countries remains well contained.

Overall， global financial conditions remain very accommodative， though the recent reassessment by markets of the outlook for US monetary policy has seen a noticeable rise in sovereign bond yields， from exceptionally low levels. Volatility in financial markets has increased and has affected a number of emerging market economies in particular. Notwithstanding the higher volatility， Australian institutions have ample access to funding markets.

In Australia， the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year. This is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target. With growth in labour costs moderating， this is expected to remain the case over the next one to two years， even with the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate.

The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values， and further effects can be expected over time， including from the declines in rates seen over recent months. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued， though recently there are signs of increased demand for finance by households.

The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April， although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time， which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.

At today's meeting， the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.(Reserve Bank of Australia)

中文版：
　　
　　在今日的会议上，委员会决定维持指标利率在2.5%的水平不变。
　　
　　近期获得的数据信息符合今年全球经济增长略低于均值水平的态势，预计明年有望实现提升。商品价格从峰值水平下跌，不过总体来看，价格仍处在历史高位附近，大部分国家的通胀形势稳定。
　　
　　总体看，国际金融环境非常具备适应性，不过市场对于美国的货币政策的评估有所转变，促使主权债收益率从异常低位反弹，金融市场的波动性有所提升，尤其对一些新兴市场构成影响。尽管市场波动性提升，但澳大利亚金融机构有充分的获取资金的途径。
　　
　　澳洲本地方面，过去1年来澳洲经济增速略低于趋势水平，这一情况预计将在短期内持续，因矿业投资水平下降需要经济逐渐去适应。失业率略有上升，近期数据确认了通胀符合中期目标水平，就业成本升幅相对温和。就业成本增速温和的情况下，即便澳元汇率近期贬值的情况下，预计这样的情形预计将在未来1-2年内持续。
　　
　　货币政策自2011年晚些时候以来逐步放松，支持了利率敏感型行业的开支，预计随着时间的流逝，后续效应还会逐步释放。尽管借贷形势相对温和，不过近期有迹象显示家庭部门融资需求有所上升。
　　
　　澳元汇率虽然仍处相对高位，但自4月早些时候以来已下跌近15%。预计本币可能随着时间的推移继续下跌，这将有助经济增长的再均衡过程。
　　
　　在今日的会议上，考虑到近期价格和经济活动性的表现，委员会判断进一步下调现金利率的做法是合适的，委员会将继续评估经济前景并在必要时调整政策，从而培育持续的需求增长，并维护通胀形势符合目标。（来源：FX168）