澳大利亚央行降息至2.5% 宽松之门依然敞开

2013年全球一周议息情况(8月5日-8月9日)

北京(CNFIN.COM / XINHUA08.COM)--澳大利亚央行8月6日宣布降息25个基点至2.5%，自2013年8月7日起生效，该结果符合市场普遍预期。这一利率水平为1959年以来最低点。澳大利亚央行本轮降息周期在21个月间累计降息幅度达225个基点。

澳大利亚央行资料图

澳大利亚央行声明称，降息的决定是适宜的，过去18个月内的宽松政策支撑了对利率敏感的支出水平和资产价格，失业率已经走高。预计近期经济增长低于趋势水平，必要时将会调整政策刺激增长。这暗示未来宽松之门依然敞开。

澳大利亚央行称，澳元可能进一步走软，澳元汇率走低将有助于经济增长再平衡。同时强调，劳动成本增速温和，即使澳元进一步疲软，仍预计未来两年内通胀率将维持在目标范围之内。

澳大利亚央行行长史蒂文斯当天在声明中表示，低通胀为央行在2013年降低利率留出了政策空间，货币政策委员会认为做出进一步降息的决定是适宜的。

史蒂文斯表示，随着矿业领域投资逐渐趋冷，央行预计澳大利亚经济在短期内可能出现低增长。他说，澳元汇率在过去三个月下滑13%，澳元汇率目前仍处于高位。他还表示欢迎澳元汇率进一步走低，认为这将有助于促进本国经济增长。

有分析人士预测，年底前澳大利亚央行还有进一步降息的可能，因为目前还没有迹象显示利率下调会刺激该国建筑和零售等领域增长。

在决议声明公布后，澳元兑美元受“卖预期，买事实”情绪快速走高，此前部分空头选择获利了结，推动澳元兑美元刷新日内高点0.8969。

从4月11日起，澳元兑美元从当时取得的五周高点1.0582起，一路走出一波单边下跌行情，截止本周一度创下三年低点0.8845，澳元在短短3个多月的时间里累积下跌了1737点，成为了年内足以与日元相媲美的最弱G10货币之一。

据悉，这是2011年11月以来澳央行第八次降息，也是今年以来第二次。在澳大利亚央行宣布降息后，澳元对美元汇率出现上涨。

附：澳大利亚央行会后声明（英文版）

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, effective 7 August 2013.

Recent information is consistent with global growth running a bit below average this year, with reasonable prospects of a pick-up next year. Commodity prices have declined but, overall, remain at high levels by historical standards. Inflation has moderated over recent months in a number of countries.

Globally, financial conditions remain very accommodative, though the recent reassessment by markets of the outlook for US monetary policy has seen a noticeable rise in sovereign bond yields, from exceptionally low levels. Volatility in financial markets has increased and has affected a number of emerging market economies in particular.

In Australia, the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year. This is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The unemployment rate has edged higher. Recent data confirm that inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target. With growth in labour costs moderating, this is expected to remain the case over the next one to two years, even with the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate.

The easing in monetary policy over the past 18 months has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values, and further effects can be expected over time. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued, though recently there are signs of increased demand for finance by households.

The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.

The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand. At today's meeting, and taking account of recent information on prices and activity, the Board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time.（来源：澳大利亚央行网站）

澳大利亚央行会后声明（中文版）

在今日的会议上，委员会决定降息25个基点，至2.5%，近期获得的数据信息符合今年全球经济增长略低于均值水平的态势，预计明年有望实现提升。商品价格进一步下跌，不过总体来看，价格仍处在历史高位附近。

多个国家的通胀数月来表现温和，国际金融环境非常具备适应性。不过市场对于美国的货币政策的评估有所转变，促使主权债收益率从异常低位反弹，金融市场的波动性有所提升，尤其对一些新兴市场构成影响。

澳洲本地方面，过去1年来澳洲经济增速略低于趋势水平，这一情况预计将在短期内持续，因矿业投资水平下降需要经济逐渐去适应。失业率略有上升，近期数据确认了通胀符合中期目标水平，就业成本升幅相对温和。

就业成本增速温和的情况下，即便澳元汇率近期标志的情况下，预计这样的情形预计将在未来1-2年内持续。

货币政策过去18个月来持续放松，支持了利率敏感型行业的开支，预计随着时间的流逝，后续效应还会逐步释放。尽管借贷形势相对温和，不过近期有迹象显示家庭部门融资需求有所上升。

澳元汇率虽然仍处相对高位，但自4月早些时候以来已下跌近15%。预计本币将随着时间的推移继续下跌，这将有助经济增长的再均衡过程。

委员会先前表示，如果有必要继续支持经济，通胀前景可能为进一步降息营造有利环境。在今日的会议上，考虑到近期价格和经济活动性的表现，委员会判断进一步下调现金利率的做法是合适的，委员会将继续评估经济前景并在必要时调整政策，从而培育持续的需求增长，并维护通胀形势符合目标。（来源：FX168）